Kesumah, Fajrin Satria Dwi and Hendrawaty, Ernie and Usman, Mustofa and Russel, Edwin and Azhar, Rialdi and Widiarti, Widiarti and Ananta, Prayudha (2020) Dynamic Model of Forecasting Stock Prices. Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 15 (6). pp. 1330-1336. ISSN ISSN: 1816-949X
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Abstract
Abstract: Sharia based investments currently become more popular in Indonesia as an alternative for those who have a long-term horizon and are seeking an Islamic way in investing their money. However, such long-term investment allows the existence of heteroscedasticity or heterogeneous variances in the time series data. To come up with this issue, one way to model the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) effect is GARCH Model. The objective of this study is to obtain the best model estimating the parameters, to forecast the stock prices and to present its predicted volatility. The results show that the best model as fitted data is AR (1)-GARCH (1,1). The implication of this model is to predict the share price of Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk, Indonesia, for the next 2 months (60 days) and it shows a very reasonable result as the percentage of error is less than the mean.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HG Finance |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis (FEB) > Prodi Manajemen |
| Depositing User: | DR ERNIE HENDRAWATY |
| Date Deposited: | 11 Nov 2020 07:39 |
| Last Modified: | 11 Nov 2020 07:39 |
| URI: | http://repository.lppm.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/24938 |
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