Russel, Edwin and Fajrin, Satria and Rialdi, Azhar and Nairobi, Nairobi and Usman, Mustofa (2020) Dynamic modeling and forecasting stock price data by applying AR-GARCH model. TEST Engineering and Management, 82 (1). pp. 6829-6842. ISSN 0193 - 4120
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Abstract
The aims of this study are to obtain the best model, to estimate parameters, and to predict the adjusted closing stock prices of Elnusa Tbk from January 2015 to December 2018, which is categorized in BEI as mining sector in Indonesia.Application of AR-GARCH model comes to be the solution to overcome the high volatility and heterogeneous variance that can often be the issues in many financial and economic time series data. The best model which fits to the data is AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model.The model can be applied soundly to predict the following 30 days stock prices that can a consideration for investors to put or call the firm’s stocks.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam (FMIPA) > Prodi Matematika |
| Depositing User: | WAMILIANA |
| Date Deposited: | 28 May 2020 07:18 |
| Last Modified: | 28 May 2020 07:18 |
| URI: | http://repository.lppm.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/20860 |
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