Nusyirwan, Nusyirwan and Lusmeilia Afriani, Lusmeilia and Fathurahman, Fathur (2022) Forecasting Monthly Rainfall Using Arima Seasonal Method: Case Study: Rainfall in West Lampung Regency. International Journal of Statistics and Applications, 12 (4). pp. 83-86. ISSN e-ISSN: 2168-5215
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Abstract
Rain comes from rain clouds that condense and fall to the earth as a result of natural phenomena so that the occurrence is so random in terms of time, location and magnitude, as a result the actual value is difficult to estimate. West Lampung Regency has two seasons (Rain and Dry) and also has very fast weather changes due to the geographical location of West Lampung Regency which borders the Indian Ocean which results in low pressure in the Indian Ocean, high rainfall will occur. Rainfall consists of two seasons and occurs repeatedly, so that rainfall is included in the monsoon pattern which is characterized by the type of unimodial rainfall (one peak of the rainy season). If using data on the amount of past rainfall, the appropriate method for modeling the amount of rainfall is the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method. This study aims to determine the SARIMA model that is formed on the data on the amount of monthly rainfall. The best SARIMA model for monthly rainfall data in West Lampung Regency is the SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,0,1)12 model with an AIC value of 887.40. Forecasting results for the next 12 months are dominated by high and very high rainfall.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam (FMIPA) > Prodi Matematika |
| Depositing User: | NUSYIRWAN |
| Date Deposited: | 01 Dec 2022 08:47 |
| Last Modified: | 01 Dec 2022 08:47 |
| URI: | http://repository.lppm.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/47092 |
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