Manik, Tumiar Katarina and Timotiwu, P.B. (2021) Food Crops Field Area Prediction In 2020 –2049 In Lampung Province, Indonesia Based On RCP 4.5 And RCP 8.5 Scenarios. In: AGU Fall Meeting 2021, 13-17 Desember 2021, New Orleans USA. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Rice, Maize and Cassava are carbohydrate sources crops which are important in Indonesia. Climate change is a serious challenge for agriculture production while more food is required to feed more people. To predict how future global warming will contribute to climate change IPCC has developed some new scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with four pathways: RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The question for this study was with the possible changes in air temperature and rainfall distribution will Rice, Maize, and Cassava will securely available in Indonesia? Applying RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, it was showed that air temperature raised 1.340C (RCP 4.5) and 1.490C (RCP 8.5); the annual average monthly rainfall raised 105.6 mm/year (RCP 4.5) and 298.2 mm/year (RCP 8.5). From temperature rising it was calculated that evaporation would rise 4.4 mm/day (RCP 4.5) and 4.7 mm/day (RCP 8.5). Based on spatial map of calculated water availabilities it could be concluded that paddy area of Lampung Province in the future somewhat increase compared to the recent condition (301,345 ha), RCP 4.5 (441 ha) and RCP 8.5 (423 ha); similar results for Maize: recent (201,237 ha), RCP 4.5 (261,89 ha) and RCP 8.5 (216,37 ha) while for Cassava would be decrease with recent (366,83 ha), compared to RCP 4.5 (278,62 ha) and RCP 8.5 (207,17 ha).

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Subjects: S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
Depositing User: TUMIAR K Manik
Date Deposited: 10 Jan 2022 09:40
Last Modified: 10 Jan 2022 09:40
URI: http://repository.lppm.unila.ac.id/id/eprint/37792

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